David L. Blain, CFA, is CEO and Founder of BlueSky Wealth Advisors and author of "Invest in Your Life, Not Just Your Portfolio."
In the third episode of his on-going video series, 2021 Financial Forecast, David discusses the 2021 Economic Outlook. Taking a deep dive into the economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the forecasted changes under President Biden's administration. Episode three is delivered in two parts. Part 1 covers the COVID-19 recovery regarding global reaction and US markets. David presents three possible scenarios of what pre-COVID normalcy may look like. Part 2 takes a closer look at the restoration of developed markets (US, Eurozone, UK, China) and explains why he predicts a lengthy recovery for emerging markets such as India, Africa, and South America. Watch Part 1 & Part 2 below!
2021 Financial Forecast | 2021 Economic Outlook | Episode 3 - Part 1
Highlights of Part 1:
0:00 - 0:25 | Introduction & Recap
0:26 - 2:36| Coronavirus, Resurgence, Vaccination, Global Probability Models, Global Economic Outlook Percentages, "Herd Immunity"
2:37 - 4:01| 4th Quarter PMI (Purchase Managers Index) Decrease, Anticipated Resolution in 2021, Supply Chain Disruption and Recovery, Deglobalization
4:02 - 5:01| COVID Treatments, Death Rate & Statistics, Improved Care & Know-How
5:02 - 7:31| Normalcy in the Age of COVID, Unprecedented Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus, Post-COVID Normalcy, Virtual Workforce
7:32 - 8:57| Adaptation of Restaurants, Search for the Solution for Hospitality and Travel Industry
8:58 - 10:06| Rapid Development of COVID Vaccine, Projected Advances in Biotech and Medical Industries
10:07 - 11:43| Fiscal Stimulus and Monetary Policies Growth, US Financial Deficit, Unprecedented Economic Paradigm
11:44 - 14:09| Three Potential Scenarios for Economic Recovery
2021 Financial Forecast | 2021 Economic Outlook | Episode 3 - Part 2
Highlights of Part 2:
0:00 - 0:02| Regional Economic Outlooks
0:02 - 1:29| US Economic Outlook: Unemployment Rate, Decline in the Strength of the Dollar, Modest Inflation, Lack of Bankruptcy, Rental Market
1:30 - 2:49| President Biden's $1.9 Million Stimulus Package, Pledges for Increased Spending on Infrastructure, Health Care, Education
2:50 - 3:29| Strength in US Housing Market, Lowest Inventory of Housing in Recent Times, Low-Interest Rates
3:30 - 4:13| Concerns for States and Local Government Unable to Print Money
4:14 - 4:39| US Economic Outlook Summary: 4-5% Growth Projected in 2021, Multiple Stimulus Plans
4:40 - 6:18| Euro-Zone Economic Outlook: Similar Dislocation of the Economy as the US, Upcoming Interdependency between European Countries
6:19 - 8:14|UK: Economic Recovery Amidst COVID and Brexit, Greater Dependency on Hospitality Industry, Workforce Updates and Restrictions Post-Brexit Deal
8:15 - 12:25| China: 9% Growth for the Year, Return to Pre-COVID levels, Infrastructure Projects Leading to Faster Recovery, Lower Stimulation from Chinese Central Bank, Intensive Monitorization of Citizens Limiting Spread of COVID, Bi-Lateral Volatility and Continued Tensions between US and China, Reworking of Supply Chain
12:26 - 13:29| Japan: Less Affected by COVID Pandemic than Anticipated, Loss of Prime Minister Abe with Similar Successor Following
13:20 - 15:36| Other Emerging Markets: India Affected Greatly, Fragile Recovery Projected, Commodity Dependency, Full Recovery Projected Closer to 2022
15:37 - 16:23| Summary of Part 1 and Part 2: Approaching Normalcy Near Summer, Low Inflation and Interest Rates, Prevalence of Government Stimulus
Capital Market Expectations | Episode 4 - Click here to view.